This has the potential to be a great thread, there are folks on this forum that are way more "long-haul" than me. And way more "luger specific" than me as I have a broad pallet when it comes to guns. I've been "around it" since I was a little kid. I actually began my own journey with collecting and selling at 16, (maybe still a kid at that point, maybe still a kid now) I'm almost 60 now, so a little over 40 years in with mentorship along the way. I'm doing the same for my kids and now my grandkids. I was taught that this "hobby" is something you can "make a little money at", and that it will at worst, "fund itself' if you do it right.
Some members here easily have another 20 years on me so I'm excited to hear what they say.
Some humor to start....Why aren't P38s with black grips "Black widow P38s" I think I'm going to list a couple on GB that way and see what happens......maybe I should buy up all the loose wartime black P38 grips first.
This current "black widow" trend is just nuts, and unprecedented both. Bitd, if somebody overpaid for a "black widow" you would say something like, "you realize that's just a common luger with black grips, right?' I blame the internet and the ability to find theses things easily (which at the onset of it's use actually caused prices to fall due to availability, perhaps another thread altogether) combined with a desire to own with no regard to actual current value. And (more importantly), the term "black widow" being somehow solidified and "legitimized" as a variant. Also quite possibly just a few "flippers" blowing it all up. Who knows, but BWs are the cabbage patch kid of lugers right now. It's a shame RS isn't alive to see what he's done.
I have watched trends with regard to antique and collectable guns (and guns in general) with great interest for years.
First, I live in an oil producing State. Here are my personal observations; When we have a Democratic President typically inflation ensues, the economy will take a down turn as prices rise due to inflation. Some people tighten belts. Others make quick profits. And oil
always goes way up.
When this happens Lugers and collectable guns start to move. Possibly from the need to sell for some, and being cash heavy from quick profits and wanting to buy for others. This causes prices to spike, this also causes people to notice that these things are "worth a lot" and suddenly grandpa Joe's Luger comes out of the sock drawer. The resulting inflationary seller's market ensues. It's a great time to sell and make profits on guns you need to upgrade and some you just have to "let go of" because the offer or opportunity is just too good. The downside is suddenly there are rare guns "out of the woodwork" you've been after for a while available, but the the price is now higher than a month ago when you couldn't find one. I have personally filled two holes in my collection in the last month with items that were scarce just a few months ago. One was a "steal" and the other was "at the top of retail", but the condition made it "impossible to upgrade" so I bought it. It will easily be worth more than I paid for it in just a few years.
A collector's world was once quite small, you had your local network of gun shops. Then the one's you would travel to occasionally (say an hr or three from home). You would establish relationships with these folks and hope they would call if something good showed up. Other collectors you met along the way, same thing. Not unlike the way guns move within this forum. You would make all the local gun shows, and the BIG show in your state if it had one. If not you would go to the closest BIG one if you had gas and gun money on hand.
Things always stabilize (there's always a "correction") and prices go down, usually not below 'the start of it all" but close sometimes.
I'll close my thoughts with @ the OP, If you have a BW you bought at $3500 six months ago, sell it now for 8k and buy 2 or three other lugers you really like. JB
